La Niña or Cool-Neutral Looking Increasingly Likely During 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season

While ENSO forecasts so far only call for cool-neutral, the likelihood of a La Nina of varying strength is increasing. Indeed, the Climate Prediction Center is modeling La Nina to be slightly more favored than ENSO cool-neutral during fall and winter 2020. In the Nino 3.4 index graph below, we can see that SSTs in that region have fallen by 8C in the past month. The subsurface Equatorial Temperature Anomaly graph showing a cross-section of the equatorial pacific ocean, shows a large area of an upwelling below average pool of water making its way to the surface.

So, the question everyone wants answered is how will this affect the upcoming hurricane season that everyone expects to be the busiest in years — yes, busier than the active seasons we’ve had since 2016. If this La Nina trend holds and SSTs in the Atlantic continue to be above normal, my guess is we’re looking at at least 18-20 named storms with a moderate risk of impacts on the Atlantic coast and an even higher chance of impacts along the Gulf coast. Some have stated that this season may rival 2005. That season saw 28 named storms which lasted into January of 2006. I’m not sure that all-time record will be touched any time soon.