Early Forecasts Point to Very Active Hurricane Season

A so-called parade of storms during the 1995 Atlantic Hurricane Season – a season that 2020 may rival if some of the early-season forecasts verify.

So far, in the first four months of this still-young year, the United States has been hit with multiple crises including a dramatic presidential impeachment process, an almost-war with Iran, a global pandemic which has so far claimed the lives of more than 60,000 Americans at the time of this writing, an economic crisis that’s rivaling the Great Depression in some aspects, and I’m probably missing a few other events. It’s hard to keep up. Most of the country has been confined to their homes for almost two months. Daily life has been completely altered and even stopped for some people. The way life was just 8 weeks ago now seems foreign. As summer approaches, everyone is desperately looking for a light at the end of the dark tunnel that has become 2020. Even as the pandemic may subside in the months to come, those on the southeast (and even northeast) coast will have to prepare for the possibility of multiple threats from tropical cyclones during the upcoming hurricane season which starts in just under a month.

All Signs Point to an Active Hurricane Season - Possibly Hyper-active.

It’s likely that we’ll be looking at yet another active Atlantic hurricane season after a few consecutive active and even deadly seasons with powerful hurricanes making landfall in the Atlantic basin. This includes 2 Category 4 hurricanes to make landfall in 2017 and Category 5 Hurricane Michael in 2018, the first Category 5 landfall in the United States since Hurricane Andrew 26 years prior. We don’t know how many or even if any named storm or hurricane will make landfall in the United States this year. You can have active seasons with no landfalling storms (or at least minimal impacts) and you can have historically inactive seasons with 1 very damaging hurricane. 1983 (Alicia in Texas) and 1992 (Andrew in Florida) come to mind. Both seasons saw very few named storms (1983 was an all-time record low of 4 named storms), but also saw a major hurricane landfall.

So, what’s driving the thinking around a potentially very active season? The Atlantic basin has been quite a bit above normal since the end of last year. The Gulf, at times, has been boiling.

Warm SST anomalies are expected to remain throughout the upcoming hurricane season. The Gulf is where I’m particularly concerned about the possibility of an early-season storm or storms (June/July). There have been times, even during the winter months, where locations in the Gulf and even the southeast coast of Florida were at or slightly above 80F.

The second major factor in the thinking around an active season is the forecasted state of ENSO moving into the heart of hurricane season from August through October.

ENSO Forecasts

Another factor that will contribute to an active Atlantic hurricane season is the state of ENSO. In February, during my last update on warm Atlantic SSTs, I noted forecasts pointing to ENSO cool- neutral or even a slight chance of La Nina going into Fall 2020. Those forecasts have not changed. For now, ENSO neutral is favored (60%) to persist through the Fall. If we are ENSO neutral, it should be a cool-neutral which has historically been the ENSO state with the most tropical activity in the Atlantic. You can see the forecasts below from the Climate Prediction Center.

Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecasts So Far

Accuweather’s hurricane season forecast released on March 25, 2020, but was UPDATED on May 7, 2020, to reflect a more active season. Their forecast called for 14 – 20 named storms, 7 – 11 hurricanes, and 4 – 6 major hurricanes.

Colorado State University’s Extended Range Forecast, released on April 2, 2020, calls for 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy Index of 150.

Tropical Storm Risk’s April Forecast Update released on April 7, 2020, calls for 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy Index of 130.

The Weather Channel’s hurricane season forecast released on April 16, 2020, calls for 18 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 hurricanes.

North Carolina State University’s hurricane season forecast, released on April 17, 2020, calls for 18 – 22 named storms, 8 – 11 hurricanes, 3 - 5 major hurricanes.