The 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season may continue a very active and impactful period that started 6 - 7 Years Ago.
While it’s far too early to know exactly what the next Atlantic Hurricane Season will bring, there are indications that the season will be another busy one. There are two factors driving this speculation — the state of ENSO and how warm the tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures will be.
On December 11, 2023, Tropical Storm Risk released their extended range 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season forecast and it’s an eye-opener.
The Numbers
TSR is calling for 20 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.
The 2023 Hurricane Season
The 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season saw 20 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Only 1 hurricane made landfall (Idalia, as a Category 3). The 2023 Season was unusual in that we had El Nino conditions during the peak, which usually suppresses development to an extent. However, the Atlantic sea surface temperatures were at record levels and this offset some of the effects of El Nino, allowing more storms to form. One hurricane did reach Category 5 status, Hurricane Lee.
There are two major factors TSR is taking into consideration that will dictate how active (or not) next year will be.
The Warm Tropical Atlantic Continues
Tropical Storm Risk believes that the tropical Atlantic will continue to run above normal. This is one factor that could contribute to another active season.
The reason why the TSR extended forecast for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane activity calls for ACE-activity above the 1991-2020 climate norm level is our current expectation that warm sea surface temperatures will occur in the Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) and Caribbean Sea during AugustSeptember 2024.
ENSO Neutral
While some climate models show a drastric flip from El Nino to La Niña, TSR is so far seeing a shift to ENSO Neutral. With a warm SSTs, this can still lead to a very active season.
Based on the consolidated IRI (International Research Institute for Climate and Society)
forecasts, we expect the current ongoing El Niño has peaked in strength and will weaken through winter and spring 2024, with near neutral ENSO conditions anticipated through summer and autumn 2024.
It should be noted that the developing El Niño was a major factor keeping the 2023 season from being more active and impactful than it was.
North Atlantic Oscillation
TSR also notes that the North Atlantic Oscillation may also have a sizable influence on the upcoming hurricane season. However, there’s no forecasting skill this far out. By April, we will have a better idea of its impact on the upcoming season.
